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Author: Senchukov G. A. (Jr) Ponomarenko T.S. Breeva A. V.

FORECASTING MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS WITH PREDETERMINED EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY IN THE LOWER COURSE OF THE DON RIVER

Topics: 05.23.16 Hydraulics and Engineering Hydrology (archive until 2018)

Abstract:

The aim of the research was to predict the maximum water levels, their quantitative values and flooding limits of the lower Don floodplain under the conditions of high water during the Tsimlyansk reservoir filling to a normal headwater level. The calculation (predictive) algorithm of maximum water levels in the lower course of the river Don under the conditions of high water during the Tsimlyansk storage reservoir to a normal headwater level is presented in the article. This algorithm consists in the transfer of natural flow observed at Kazanskaya gauging station taking into account the tributaries in the lower course of the river Don for further determination of maximum water levels through their exceedance above the level of zero. The developed algorithm for forecasting the annual maximum water levels makes it possible to carry out scenario studies (prediction calculations), namely, to set (justify) different values of annual maximum water discharge in the river Don in the cross section of Kazanskaya gauging station and calculate the annual water levels of the river Don downstream the Tsimlyansk reservoir both for each gauging station and between them. As a result of calculation for Nikolaevskaya and Razdorskaya gauging stations, the coefficients of variation and asymmetry of undistorted runoff were determined from the data of Kazanskaya gauging station. Also, the dependence of maximum water flow on the maximum water levels exceedance over zero of gauge for all gauging stations is determined and the corresponding equations are presented. The values of modular coefficients for calculating the maximum water levels for a given exceedance probability are determined. The values of maximum water levels with characteristic exceedance probabilities in gauging stations section are given. The prediction position for maximum water levels is shown.
Key words: hydrological observations, maximum level, maximum flow, gauging station, the Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia.
DOI: 10.31774/2222-1816-2018-4-201-213

For citas:
G. A. Senchukov, T. S. Ponomarenko, A. V. Breeva. FORECASTING MAXIMUM WATER LEVELS WITH PREDETERMINED EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY IN THE LOWER COURSE OF THE DON RIVER. Scientific Journal of Russian Scientific Research Institute of Land Improvement Problems. 2018. No 4. P. 201-213 DOI:https://doi.org/10.31774/2222-1816-2018-4-201-213

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